October Surprises

  • Garfield’s “death warrant"

    Garfield’s “death warrant"
    James Garfield originally had advocated for reasonable limited immigration for workers from China, but somebody decided to try and forge a letter contradicting that. This letter was written in Garfield's name, saying that “individuals and companies have the right to buy labor where they can get it cheapest.” Hundreds of these letters were printed out and distributed, causing Garfield to lose California and almost lose the election.
  • FDR Incident

    FDR Incident
    After campaigning in Madison Square Garden, FDR attempted to get on a train to leave, but one of his staffers, Stephen Early, was blocked by two police officers. He became very angry after missing the train and kneed one of the cops in the groin. This cop happened to be Black, and the public became angry. The apology was half-hearted, but FDR tried to make amends by promoting a Black general and creating the Tuskegee Airmen. He won the election, but lost a small percentage of Black voters.
  • Nixon in The Vietnam War

    Nixon in The Vietnam War
    President Lyndon Johnson tried to help his Vice President Hubert Humphrey win the election by promoting peace and stopping all U.S. bombing campaigns in Vietnam. Humphrey still lost, and four years later Nixon was the one trying to create peace in Vietnam so he would be reelected. In early October, there may have been a breakthrough in peace talks with the North Vietnamese. Kissinger, his national security advisor, promised peace and secure Nixon's election.
  • Ronald Reagan Hostage Crisis

    Ronald Reagan Hostage Crisis
    More than 50 Americans were held hostage in Iran for a full year. Ronald Reagan decided to campaign their freedom, but had a suspicion that his competitor Carter had already secured heir freedom and was waiting until the election neared to use it to his advantage. William Casey, Reagan’s campaign manager, dubbed this possibility as an "October surprise." It never happened, and Reagan won the election.
  • Bush's Challenges

    Bush's Challenges
    Bush was trying to run for a second term, but faced many challenges. The American economy was in a recession, there was a third party with considerable votes, and Bush was involved in an affair that didn't look good for his administration. Caspar Weinberger, Secretary of Defense for Reagan, was involved in the Iran-Contra affair. This looked bad for Bush, because he was Vice President for Reagan. Bush lost the election, and it could have been any of these factors.
  • Bush's DUI

    Bush's DUI
    The 2000 election was a dead heat between George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore. Days before election day, Fox News revealed that in 1976 Bush had been arrested for drunk driving, making it seem as if he was unfit for office. Bush’s “October surprise” cost him five states in the 2000 election.
  • Clinton's Emails

    Clinton's Emails
    Just 11 days before the election. James Comey, the FBI director, called a press conference to announce that the intelligence agency was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private email server. This packed a crippling punch to her campaign, possibly causing her to lose the election.