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A Forged Letter Almost Becomes Garfield’s ‘Death Warrant’
James Garfield, the Republican candidate advocating for reasonable immigration limits, and the Democratic Party, which sought an immediate moratorium on Chinese immigration. The Democrats exploited a forged "Morey letter" that falsely depicted Garfield as supporting unrestricted Chinese labor, distributing it widely in battleground states. Garfield won the election with 214 electoral votes but narrowly secured the popular vote by just 0.02 percentage points -
FDR Almost Loses the Black Vote
Black voters, who switched from the Republican Party to support Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt and his New Deal programs. Roosevelt won 71% of the Black vote, though by 1940, support waned due to frustration over segregation in the military.A scandal erupted when Roosevelt’s press aide, Stephen Early, injured a Black officer, sparking backlash. In response, FDR promoted Black military leaders to preserve support, ultimately securing a third term with only a slight decline in Black voter backing. -
Kissinger Prematurely Announces ‘Peace’ in Vietnam
In 1968, President Lyndon Johnson halted U.S. bombing in Vietnam to support Democratic candidate Hubert Humphrey, but peace talks quickly collapsed, leading to allegations that Richard Nixon had sabotaged them. By 1972, Nixon aimed for a peace agreement, and despite behind-the-scenes objections from South Vietnam, his advisor Henry Kissinger declared “peace is at hand” just days before the election, although the war persisted for three more years. -
Reagan Campaign Coins the Term ‘October Surprise’
The term “October surprise” originated during the 1980 election amid the Iranian Hostage Crisis, where over 50 Americans were held captive at the Tehran embassy for nearly a year. Ronald Reagan's campaign accused President Jimmy Carter of planning to announce a hostage release shortly before the election to boost his chances, a theory dubbed the “October surprise” by campaign manager William Casey. -
Iran-Contra Indictment Is Bad News for George H.W. Bush
In 1992, President George H.W. Bush faced significant challenges in his reelection campaign, primarily due to a recession and the emergence of Ross Perot as a strong third-party candidate who drew Republican votes. Compounding these issues was the fallout from the Iran-Contra Affair, particularly the indictment of former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger in June 1992, which raised questions about Bush's knowledge of the scandal as Reagan's vice president. Ultimately, Bush lost to Bill Clinton -
A DUI Almost Derails George W. Bush
In the weeks leading up to the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush and Al Gore were in a tight race, making it a prime candidate for an "October surprise." Just days before the election, news broke of Bush's 1976 arrest for drunk driving. While Gore won the popular vote, Bush ultimately won the presidency after a contentious Florida recount, and Republican strategist Karl Rove suggested that the revelation cost Bush crucial support in several states -
FBI Reopens Probe into Clinton’s Emails
The announcement by FBI Director James Comey on October 28, just days before the election, that the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email server was being reopened. This news overshadowed other revelations, such as Donald Trump's 2005 video and leaked transcripts of Clinton's speeches, and it severely damaged Clinton's campaign momentum. Despite winning the popular vote, Clinton lost the election