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The plague apparently arrived in Europe by Genoese merchant ships either from the Middle East or the Crimea, especially from Caffa, which disembarked at Messina in Sicily in October 1347
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From Messina, the plague spread across Sicily and then moved northward following routes of trade. Florence, Genoa and Pisa with populations before the plague nearly 100,000 suffered losses of 50 to 60%
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By the end of 1348, the Plague had crossed the alps through the trade routes and was infecting the German states and spreading over to England, where 1/3 of the population would die.
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Among those shouldering the blame for the catastrophe, the Jews who were the object of pogroms, especially in Germany. One of the worst was at Strasbourg in 1349.
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By the end of 1349 the Plague was in northern Germany
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The Plague entered the Baltic region by the middle of 1350.
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The Plague had run its course as it entered the cold climate of the northern Baltic region.
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Areas that lay outside the major trade routes such as Bohema, appear to have been virtually unaffected. Overall, assessments of those who died range from a quarter to half the population of Europe. This would place the loss at between 19 to 38 million people.