Politics October Surprise Timeline

By christensonc26@eosmith.org

  • A Forged Letter Almost Becomes Garfield’s ‘Death Warrant’ (1880)

    A Forged Letter Almost Becomes Garfield’s ‘Death Warrant’ (1880)
    12 days before the 1880 election, a letter Republican candidate James Garfield wrote to businessman H.L. Morey was leaked. It detailed that "unrestricted Chinese immigration is good for business." Garfield still won the election, even though Chinese immigration was a hot topic amongst voters.

  • FDR Almost Loses the Black Vote (1940)

    FDR Almost Loses the Black Vote (1940)
    Black Americans were unhappy with FDR's dismissal of segregation, and it looked even worse because his candidate was a vocal advocate. His press aide Stephen Early was accused of harming a black police officer, which also didn't help. To save himself, FDR promoted Colonel Benjamin O. Davis Jr. to brigadier general; making Davis the first black man to reach that rank. Overall, "FDR ended up winning an unprecedented third term as president and only lost a small percentage of the Black vote."

  • Kissinger Prematurely Announces ‘Peace’ in Vietnam (1972)

    Kissinger Prematurely Announces ‘Peace’ in Vietnam (1972)
    Incumbent Presidents tried to strike peace deals in both 1968 and 1972. President Johnson stopped bombings in Vietnam, helping Hubert Humphrey and harming Republican Candidate Richard Nixon. Nixon tried to achieve peace, creating propositions/deals. His national security advisor Henry Kissinger prematurely proclaimed peace, leading to Nixon's election. "Nixon was already heavily favored to win in 1972, but Kissinger’s premature 'peace' announcement may have contributed to his landslide victory."

  • Reagan Campaign Coins the Term ‘October Surprise’ (1980)

    Reagan Campaign Coins the Term ‘October Surprise’ (1980)
    Reagan coined the term "October Surprise" to represent that he felt that President Jimmy Carter was going to announce the release of hostages in October before the election. This wouldn't have helped Reagan because he had campaigned on a promise to free the hostages. In the end, Reagan ended up winning easily (and months later the hostages were released).

  • Iran-Contra Indictment Is Bad News for George H.W. Bush (1992)

    Iran-Contra Indictment Is Bad News for George H.W. Bush (1992)
    In 1992, George Bush was trying to get elected, but they were in the middle of a recession and his opponents were taking his votes from him. But Caspar Weinberger got indicted for his part in the Iran-Contra Affair, which was when "Reagan allegedly authorized illegal weapons sales to Iran in order to funnel money to the Contras, an anti-socialist army in Nicaragua." This was a bad look for Bush as they were all involved with each other. In the end, Bush lost the election to Clinton.

  • A DUI Almost Derails George W. Bush (2000)

    A DUI Almost Derails George W. Bush (2000)
    "George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving in Maine after a long night of partying." This made him seem too young and irresponsible, but he responded acknowledging his mistake. Even though he lost many state elections, Bush was elected as the President of the United States.

  • FBI Reopens Probe into Clinton’s Emails (2016)

    FBI Reopens Probe into Clinton’s Emails (2016)
    They reinvestigated the Clinton's private emails, amongst the midst of many other October Surprises released that year. The fact that they reopened it delivered a "crippling blow" to Clinton. She lost the election.